World Cup 2026 Tips — Wednesday 1 July Predictions & Best Bets

Two giants fell on penalties this week, and every punter watching learned the same lesson twice: in the knockouts, the short price on the big name is the most expensive bet on the coupon. Wednesday 1 July offers a chance to apply it. Three round-of-32 ties frame the day — a heavy English favourite, a European side that top their group the hard way, and a co-host carrying a chip on its shoulder into a home crowd. I have been through the team news, the models and the prices, and here is exactly how I am approaching it.

A note on the numbers first. The match prices below are converted from the FanDuel board carried by FOX Sports, dated 30 June 2026, and shown in the fractional odds Irish punters know by heart with the decimal in brackets. Remember these are 90-minute markets: a knockout tie level after normal time goes to extra time and penalties, which win-draw-win does not settle. Confirm the live price with your bookmaker before you stake. To the football.

England vs DR Congo — 17:00 IST, Atlanta

The bookmakers see a mismatch and price it like one. England are a skinny 1/4 (1.26) to win in 90 minutes, the draw is around 9/2 (5.40) and DR Congo are out to 13/1 (14.0). It is not hard to see why. Thomas Tuchel’s side won Group L and arrive unbeaten in 11 competitive matches (10 wins, one draw), with Harry Kane having just become England’s all-time World Cup top scorer. DR Congo, for their part, are in the first knockout tie in their history, having squeezed through as one of the best third-placed sides.

My read: backing England at 1/4 is not betting, it is lending the bookmaker money. The interest lives elsewhere. England are without the injured Reece James at right-back and lost Tino Livramento for the tournament, though Declan Rice returns to midfield. Against a disciplined, organised African side with nothing to lose, an England win-to-nil or a Harry Kane anytime scorer is the more thoughtful way into a short-priced favourite. Our England at the World Cup 2026 profile has the full team news.

Belgium vs Senegal — 21:00 IST, Seattle

The tie of the day for value. Belgium are around 11/10 (2.15) to win, the draw is roughly 2/1 (3.10) and Senegal are a tempting 13/5 (3.60). Belgium reached this stage the hard way — a 5–1 demolition of New Zealand made them the first European side since England in 1990 to win a World Cup group after failing to win either of their first two games — and Kevin De Bruyne, with a goal and three assists in the group, is the creative fulcrum. Senegal, third in their group, hammered Iraq 5–0 but there is a cloud over them: goalkeeper Édouard Mendy is doubtful with a knee-ligament problem, having left the camp for checks.

My read: this is the closest line on the card and rightly so. If Mendy misses, Senegal’s biggest source of knockout composure goes with him, and Belgium’s 11/10 starts to look fair rather than short. For those chasing the bigger number, Senegal at 13/5 have the pace to hurt a Belgian defence that has looked far from watertight — but the Mendy news is the swing factor, so wait for the team sheet. Our Belgium at the World Cup 2026 page sets the scene.

USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina — 01:00 IST (Thu), Santa Clara

The co-hosts, and a manager with a point to prove. The USA are strong 4/11 (1.36) favourites, the draw is 4/1 (5.00) and Bosnia & Herzegovina are 8/1 (9.0) on their maiden knockout-stage appearance. The Opta supercomputer makes the hosts win around 67.5% of its simulations — but the story here is the mood in the American camp. Manager Mauricio Pochettino cut a prickly figure after his side topped Group D, bristling at the reception: "At the moment, no one congratulated us for finishing first in a very difficult group," he complained. "And maybe I need to go to the dressing room and come back and start again the press conference because it’s like we lost 5–1. I am the USA coach, not any other."

My read: a wounded, motivated favourite in front of a home crowd is a dangerous thing to oppose outright, and 4/11 reflects it. The value, if you want it, is in the margin — a USA win-to-nil or the hosts by two-plus goals against a Bosnia side making their knockout debut looks a more rewarding route than the bare price. Our predictions hub tracks how the models see the rest of the bracket.

How I’m Playing the Day

Three ties, one clear philosophy: leave the cricket-score favourites alone and hunt the value in the scorelines and the team news. My single best bet is Senegal (13/5) or Belgium double-chance in Seattle, decided entirely by whether Édouard Mendy is passed fit — the one line on the card the bookmakers may have wrong. My supporting play is Harry Kane anytime scorer against DR Congo, a disciplined bet on a man in record-breaking form. And if you enjoy an accumulator, folding England and the USA to qualify into a two-fold turns two skinny prices into something worth collecting — our World Cup accumulator tips page shows how to build one without overreaching.

For Irish punters, every brand in the regulated market here prices these markets in euro and fractional odds — names such as BetiBet and MrPacho have been competitive on the scorer and double-chance lines this week. The standing advice never changes: stake only what you can afford to lose, take the value where the model and the eye agree, and read our responsible betting guide before you commit. The wider title picture is on our World Cup 2026 odds page.